• The significance of Putin’s growing unpopularity and why you should be wary of lurid claims in Western media;

• State-owned Russian Railways, one of the country’s most important companies, has slashed its investment program and is struggling with over $47 billion of debt.

We also examine scaled-back Victory Day celebrations, the unprecedented flight of a deputy minister to the United States, and recent data that shows Russia has not yet had a significant financial windfall from the Iran war.

⏳This newsletter contains 2,206 words and will take about 11 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

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Putin’s sliding popularity is significant—but not critical

While it’s true that the Russian regime is facing a level of stress not seen for several years, alarmist predictions being aired in Western media are wide of the mark.

In recent days, Western media have been filled with a series of lurid articles suggesting the Russian regime is bedevilled by an unprecedented level of infighting—and even that President Vladimir Putin’s days in power might be numbered.

Some of the reporting has been based on a report from an unidentified European security agency, with CNN on Thursday headlining an article: “Unsettled Kremlin tightens security around Putin amid assassinations and coup fears, intel report says.” The Washington Post published an article Wednesday that cited a source claiming there is a “divide in the upper reaches of Kremlin power,” and a commentator on a Sky News podcast suggested that “If Putin’s not careful, the country could snap.”

But does this sort of reporting reflect the real state of affairs in the Kremlin? While it’s difficult to judge the veracity of briefings by unidentified European security officials (or their motivations for speaking out now), it’s true that Putin’s approval ratings have been falling in recent weeks. This is undeniably significant.

The Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), whose main client is the Kremlin, said last week that 73 percent of respondents believe Putin is doing a “rather good” job, the lowest figure since 2022. Independent pollster Levada Center said on May 30 that Putin’s approval rating has fallen steadily for six months, reaching 79 percent in April, the first time it has been below 80 percent since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And Kremlin-run polling center VTsIOM said last month that Putin’s support had fallen for 7 weeks in a row to just 65.6 percent.

To an outside observer, these numbers might look extraordinarily high (in contrast, 78 percent of Germans disapprove of the German chancellor, and 62 percent of those in the United States disapprove of President Donald Trump). But authoritarian Russia functions very differently from Western democracies.

Putin’s popularity is not only the pulse of the Russian system, it’s an important indicator of political stability. Officials at all levels strive to boost the president’s rating, which is considered tantamount to a matter of national security. Crucially, no other politician is allowed to get more popular than Putin. For example, when Khabarovsk region governor Sergei Furgal’s approval ratings surpassed Putin’s, he was jailed.

And it’s noticeable that the Kremlin has recently been taking steps to burnish Putin’s image—a sure sign of concern. After several months of rarely appearing in public, Putin suddenly became very active last week, including meetings with what Kremlin political managers call “different social groups” (including athletes, and indigenous peoples).

Why are Putin’s ratings declining? Firstly, people are unhappy with the economic situation. To finance military spending, the authorities have had to raise taxes and crack down on tax evasion. At the same time, interest rates remain high because the Central Bank is pursuing a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. As a result, economic growth and household income growth slowed significantly last year. Secondly, war fatigue is growing. There were hopes for an end to the fighting and a return to normal life after Trump returned to the White House in 2025—but these have been dashed. Finally, online restrictions and internet shutdowns have caused widespread anger.

Is the regime under threat? This is the key question. The European security agency report apparently suggested that Putin was more and more fearful of a coup. But it seems unlikely that coup plotters in Russia would be informing European spies of their intentions (or that European spies would want to warn Putin of a plot).

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• Why mild criticism of President Vladimir Putin by celebrity blogger Victoriya Bonya got such an extraordinary response from the Russian political elite;

• The detention of top managers at Russia’s biggest publishing house and what it says about growing pressure on the book market.

We also examine Putin’s first public expression of approval for the rehabilitation of Soviet-era spymaster Felix Dzerzhsinky, and ongoing discussions about a windfall tax.

⏳This newsletter contains 2244 words and will take about 11 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

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Russia’s political class obsesses over blogger’s Putin criticism

Not only did criticism of Putin by Monaco-based blogger Victoriya Bonya go viral with over 30 million views, it was taken seriously by top regime figures.

Despite the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran, the last ten days have seen Russia’s political class consumed by the fallout from a viral video post by a celebrity blogger that leveled criticism at President Vladimir Putin. The extraordinary response from both ordinary Russians and prominent political figures not only reflects the country’s warped political landscape, where opposition voices have been ruthlessly purged, but the entire system’s growing instability.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], people are afraid of you. The public is afraid, bloggers and artists are afraid, governors are afraid. But you are the president of our country. I think we shouldn’t be afraid,” Victoriya Bonya said in the 18-minute video posted last week to Instagram that has since amassed more than 30 million views, and 85,000 comments.

Bonya, 46, rose to fame when she participated in Dom-2, the Russian equivalent of reality shows like Big Brother or Love Island, in the mid-2000s, and she is one of the last people you would expect to be making political waves. She lives a luxurious life in Monaco, and sells cosmetics and clothing via Instagram, where she has 13.6 million followers and regularly posts scantily-clad photos. Last year, she climbed Everest.

The apolitical blogger’s mild criticism was quickly taken up by Russian politicians including the Communist Party’s aging leader Gennady Zyuganov, and it received unusual public replies from regime heavyweights including Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. It was also commented on by propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, journalist Ksenia Sobchak (who also became famous through Dom-2), a string of parliamentary deputies, and dozens of influential pro-war bloggers.

The fact that it went viral not only suggests there is significant discontent in Russia, but that traditional channels of communication with officials are no longer functioning as they once did. It’s also a testament to how Putin is distracted from day-to-day politics by the war in Ukraine, and is too busy (or too uninterested) to engage with bread-and-butter issues.

In her video, Bonya raised five critical topics that, she said, were a cause of worry for Russians: flooding in the North Caucasus region of Dagestan, an oil spill in the Black Sea, the culling of livestock in Siberia, internet restrictions, and the killing of endangered animals. She claimed that “real” information does not reach Putin, and that there is a “wall” between him and the masses.

Video appeals to Putin are a common genre in Russia’s personalized autocracy, where there is no independent judiciary or media—and criticism of the authorities can lead to a prison sentence. In most cases, such appeals are a sign of desperation.

Notably, Bonya said nothing about the war in Ukraine; nor did she criticize Putin directly, Instead, she said she supported the Russian leader, and that he was a “strong politician.” She subsequently distanced herself from independent Russian outlets, which had sent her inquiries about follow-up interviews, saying: “I am not a traitor; I am with the people.”

As Bonya’s address garnered millions of views, Putin’s spokesman Peskov gave an unexpectedly conciliatory—and substantive—response. Three days after her outburst, he said that the issues Bonya raised were “resonant” and that “work is being done on them.” Bonya then posted another video in tears, expressing her gratitude.

The “Bonya effect” did not end there. Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Zyuganov expressed his support for Bonya and warned that, if the Kremlin did not heed her words, there could be a revolution. When Volodin joined the debate he was more critical. Without mentioning Bonya, he called on everyone to “stop supporting those who left the country in difficult times and are shaping hostility toward us.” For their part, pro-Kremlin bloggers accused Bonya of being a hired shill. Her main public opponent became propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, who gave an insulting tirade about her on his radio show.

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On Thursday, April 23, at 17:00 CET / 11:00 EST, Farida Rustamova, Margarita Liutova, and Howard Amos will host a Substack livestream. Save the date!

We will be happy to talk on any topic: from the fallout from the war in Ukraine, to divisive internet restrictions, a stuttering economy, and Putin’s increasing secretiveness.

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• How the FSB’s pursuit of total control over the Russian internet has caused serious disagreements in the elite, risking a political backlash.

• Desperate to find more revenue, officials are mulling whether to impose taxes on an innovative and extremely popular instant payment network.

We also examine police raids on the Moscow offices of Novaya Gazeta, and why Putin allowed famous icons from a museum to be transferred to the Orthodox Church.

⏳This newsletter contains 2,164 words and will take about 10 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

Putin sides with FSB amid anger over internet restrictions

The blocking of Telegram, a campaign against VPNs, and internet shutdowns have complicated the lives of bureaucrats, and caused business people to lose money.

At a Saturday morning meeting last month, executives from Russia’s largest telecom operators and internet companies were surprised to be handed a document by Digital Minister Maksut Shadayev, who was accompanied by an unidentified officer from the Federal Security Services (FSB). They were told to sign immediately. According to journalist Maria Kolomychenko, the document obliged their companies to stop working with clients who are using Virtual Private Networks (VPN) to evade internet restrictions—a common practice in Russia, where hundreds of major internet platforms and media outlets are blocked.

The executives were outraged by the request, and went to the press. Their willingness to brief journalists attested to the depth of their anger—after all, it has long been taboo for members of the elite to air their dirty laundry in public.

“Everyone is against [more internet restrictions] except one agency,” said a high-ranking source close to the government, referring to the FSB. “My teenage children complain: ‘Come to your senses, what are you doing?’” said another source close to the government.

The incident with Shadayev is a good illustration of the extent of the unhappiness within the elite—among both business leaders who are losing money, and officials who have far fewer tools to influence public opinion. The issue has come to the fore in recent months as the FSB seems to be in a hurry to destroy Russia’s remaining elements of free internet, blocking popular messaging app Telegram, cracking down on VPNs, and extending mobile internet blackouts.

The anger in Russia’s business elite, which is losing billions of dollars, is particularly intense. And matters have been made worse by the Kremlin’s refusal to engage in discussions.

“High-quality internet is a matter of national competitiveness. Without it, your country is cut off from global progress,” complained a source close to the leadership of a big Russian IT company.

At a meeting with the country’s wealthiest businessmen last month, the issue of internet blackouts was raised with Putin. The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (the so-called “oligarchs union”) told Putin that shutdowns had made life harder for businesses, as well as ordinary people, and asked for a solution. Putin sidestepped the question. At a subsequent closed-door meeting, he also failed to offer an explanation, and made no promises, according to two Vlast sources who had knowledge of the gathering.

At the same time, Russian officials are irritated about being obliged to abandon Telegram and move their public communications to MAX, a messaging app developed by a Russian company close to the security services. All state employees will soon be legally required to use MAX for work communications.

However, the two government sources and another ten sources across government agencies and state companies told Vlast that state employees and politicians have been buying new phones and “clean” SIM cards solely to use MAX.

Others are still holding out hope that a compromise solution will be found. A source from a federal agency said that no one wants to lose Telegram: “Everyone hopes [Telegram founder Pavel] Durov will come up with something to bypass the restrictions, or that the problem will somehow resolve itself.”

Just like business executives leaking to the press, dissatisfaction among officials has also spilled over into the public sphere. The governor of Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, complained last month that, unlike Telegram, MAX does not have push notifications, which means local residents will not be able to get timely alerts about incoming Ukrainian missiles and drones.

Russian political parties (which express some token opposition but are ultimately loyal to the Kremlin) are well aware of the public anger about the internet restrictions, and have spoken out about the blocking of Telegram—apparently seeking to boost their popularity ahead of parliamentary elections in September. The New People party, which was created by the Kremlin to channel liberal votes, has been the most outspoken. But there has also been criticism from the Communist Party, Just Russia, and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (which expelled a State Duma deputy whose active role in the debate made it look as if the party was in favor).

Notably, the popularity of New People reached an all-time high Friday, according to state-owned pollster VTsIOM. A total 12.3 percent of those surveyed by VTsIOM said they would vote for New People in elections, up 1.5 percentage points from a week earlier (a significant jump). Support for the ruling party, United Russia, has been falling in recent months, currently standing at a five-year low of 29.7 percent.

Putin’s influential deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko, who oversees domestic politics, has made no public statement about the restrictions—but many suspect he is unhappy at being deprived of Telegram (a key tool of communication), and worried that public anger could complicate the State Duma elections at which he is expected to deliver a comprehensive victory for United Russia. Tellingly, Kiriyenko seems to have allowed the expressions of dissent from political parties (as long as there is no direct criticism of Putin or the FSB). It’s also significant that the Central Election Commission has given permission for campaigning to take place on Telegram.

It seems possible that the FSB is seeking to establish total control over the internet before the formal start to campaigning in the State Duma elections in June. The high-ranking source close to the government said that the FSB is particularly powerful during wartime, and, if the fighting in Ukraine ended, the FSB might have to give up its desire for such total control. “They [the FSB] are pushing because there won’t be another opportunity,” he said.

All Vlast’s government sources said it’s impossible for anyone within the system to really oppose the FSB. The spy agency is adept at manipulating the internet-illiterate Putin, who tends to trust their recommendations—particularly in wartime.

Our sources believe there is only one development that could change Putin’s mind: if Russia’s token opposition parties (particularly the Communists) see a significant rise in their popularity. If that happens, one source suggested, Kremlin officials could show Putin the alarming polling numbers, and successfully propose a compromise.

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Analysis in brief

Police carried out searches Thursday at the Moscow offices of Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent media outlets still operating in Russia (the newspaper’s editor-in-chief, Dmitry Muratov, received the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize). The search lasted 12 hours, and investigative journalist Oleg Roldugin was detained. Until last year, Roldugin was editor-in-chief of the Russian weekly journal Sobesednik, which was occasionally critical of the authorities.

Putin gave permission last week for the transfer of two famous icons to the Russian Orthodox Church. The Vladimir icon (a masterpiece of 12th-century Byzantine painting) and the Donskaya icon (from the 14th century), which are both considered miracle-working by the Russian Orthodox Church, were moved from Moscow’s Tretyakov Gallery to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior. This was the second such transfer since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine (the first was the 15th-century Trinity icon painted by Andrei Rublev in 2023).

Patriarch Kirill said Saturday that he had asked Putin to authorize the transfer, and that people should now pray before these icons “for our Fatherland, for our Orthodox President Vladimir Vladimirovich, for the authorities, for the army, that the Lord may protect our Fatherland and not allow those who wish evil upon our country to achieve their goals.” Art historian Elizaveta Likhacheva told the BBC Russian Service this week that the move is a sign of “magical thinking” within some in Putin’s inner circle, who believe that religious devotion can help Russia prevail in the Ukraine war.

Russia looks to tap $1.3 trillion instant payment network

If the Finance Ministry decides to go ahead and levy taxes on transactions in the popular Faster Payments System (FPS), it could affect millions of ordinary people.

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Our newsletter is getting a makeover! This has been a long time in the coming, but it has taken so many months because we wanted to get it right. We believe that high-quality content deserves a high-quality brand.

With this step, we hope our reporting will be more accessible to those interested in understanding the secretive Russian regime.

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• A big fall in the number of public appearances by the Russian leader in 2026, and why this might lead to political problems;

• A push to force universities to recruit 2 percent of their students for the military— particularly the country’s newly-created drone forces.

We also highlight data showing the Russian economy continues to stagnate, and how payouts to student mothers are supposed to help solve Russia’s demographic problem.

This newsletter contains 1667 words and will take about 8 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

Putin’s public appearances drop 24% in last 3 months

The Russian leader’s preference for geopolitics and closed-door meetings could end up increasing the political risks facing the regime.

The number of times Russian President Vladimir Putin has appeared in public was significantly down in the first three months of this year, according to a tally by Vlast. The noticeable absence is likely to not only be the result of Putin’s obsession with geopolitics—particularly the war in Ukraine—but also a desire to avoid association with unpopular domestic issues, and a growing preference for secrecy.

In the first three months of this year, Putin has taken part in just 54 public meetings and events—compared to 71 in the same period last year. In 2024, he attended 107 public events, but this number was so high partly because of campaigning in the run-up to presidential elections in March. Before the full-scale war in Ukraine and the coronavirus epidemic, Putin also tended to participate in more public events (for example, in 2019, he was seen 87 times in the first three months of the year).

We reached these numbers by counting the press releases and transcripts on the Kremlin website. We did not include pre-recorded bilateral meetings—so-called “canned” events—that are often released weeks, or even months, after they take place (this helps create the illusion that Putin, 73, is always hard at work). Even if you do include the “canned” events, though, Putin has still attended 20 percent fewer public events this year.

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• Why are Russian officials so careful when talking about the conflict?

• Will Putin follow through on new threats against Europe?

• Can higher oil prices solve Russia’s economic problems?

We also look at unprecedented internet blackouts in Moscow, the arrest of (yet another) ex-deputy defense minister, an unusual mistake by the Kremlin’s press service, and whether the Russian capital is really experiencing financial difficulties.

⏳ This newsletter contains 1866 words and will take about 9 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

Kremlin wary not to alienate Trump with Iran war criticism

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have been extremely cautious when talking publicly about the conflict in the Middle East. Indeed, the Kremlin’s communications strategy could be summarized as: “repeat that Russia is a strategic partner of Iran, and avoid criticism of the U.S. leadership.”

Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli operation, Russia has only once explicitly criticized Washington. That was in a condolence message Putin sent to Iran after the killing of the country’s head of state, Ali Khamenei, in which he described the assassination as a “cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.” We don’t know whether Putin was similarly critical during a phone call with Trump on Monday, but it seems very unlikely. The Kremlin’s official statement following the call was conciliatory.

Although Iran is a Russian ally, and has provided the Russian military with drones for the war in Ukraine, two senior Russian officials told Faridaily that Putin does not want to risk angering Trump. In other words, Putin will put his personal relationship with the U.S. leader before any rhetorical assistance for Iran.

After all, Putin is a pragmatist. He understands that Trump’s presidency is an opportunity for Russia to win the war with Ukraine, said one of the sources, who is close to the Kremlin. “A war with Ukrainians to the bitter end would be an extremely negative, even catastrophic, outcome for Russia,” he added. Putin will continue engaging with Trump over Ukraine despite the war in the Middle East, added the second source.

At the same time, the public caution of Russian officials does not mean the Kremlin has frozen out Iran entirely. After all, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2025 that specified intelligence sharing and military consultation.

U.S. media outlets have reported over the last week that Moscow is providing Tehran with information (particularly satellite imagery) about the movements of U.S. troops, ships and aircraft in the Middle East. The Kremlin has declined to comment on the reports, and Trump has said he has no confirmation that this is the case.

Either way, it’s likely that, while the Trump-Putin relationship is the Kremlin’s priority, Russian officials also see the Iran war as presenting some opportunities. The two sources both highlighted a belief that the war in Iran was a step toward the sort of new world order Putin has been seeking.

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New threats to Europe

While wary of criticizing the U.S. and Israel, Putin has been far less restrained when it comes to Europe. In particular, he instructed the Russian government last week to assess the feasibility of an “early termination” of natural gas supplies to European countries (except Hungary and Slovakia). The word “early” here is a reference to the European Union’s full ban on Russian LNG and gas imports due to be implemented in 2027.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak later said that Russia was looking at re-directing supplies to China, India, Thailand, and the Philippines. If Russia did halt gas supplies, it would be a major blow to European energy markets. According to Eurostat, Russia provides about 16 percent of Europe’s LNG imports and 13 percent of the EU’s total gas supplies.

However, according to Faridaily’s sources, Putin’s threats should not be taken seriously. Above all, an end to gas supplies to Europe would inflict a major financial blow on Russia. One source said that Putin’s comments were just an attempt to push gas prices higher—adding to the pressure on European capitals amid the Iran war.

Higher oil prices will not solve Russia’s economic problems

The rise in oil prices triggered by the fighting in Iran will inevitably mean a financial windfall for the Kremlin. How much money Russia makes, though, will depend on how long the fighting continues, and whether oil prices remain elevated.

The nature of Russia’s tax system means we won’t have the data to calculate the Iran war windfall in March for a number of weeks. Instead, we can only make an educated guess.

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• Why the Kremlin has decided to shut down Moscow’s Gulag History Museum and replace it with one pushing a propaganda narrative about World War II;

• The problems faced by Ukraine war veterans and what the Kremlin is doing to try help them re-integrate into society.

We also highlight data suggesting further labor market weakening, the nationalization of a major ball-bearing factory, and increasing pressure against Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

⏳ This newsletter contains 2217 words—it will take about 11 minutes to read.

Translated and edited by Howard Amos.

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Gulag museum closure a watershed moment

The shuttering of the widely-praised, state-owned Gulag History Museum highlights the ever-growing influence of Russia’s security services.

Moscow City Hall announced last week that the capital’s Gulag History Museum will be shut down after nearly 20 years of commemorating the darkest page of Soviet history. In its place, a museum will be opened about Nazi crimes during World War II, and the so-called “genocide of the Soviet people.” In keeping with the times, it will be headed by a veteran of the war in Ukraine.

The Gulag History Museum was the only major state-run institution commemorating Stalinist repression, and its replacement by a museum promoting a propagandistic interpretation of World War II is a pivotal moment in Russia’s cultural and political life that vividly illustrates the dominance of the security services, and their ultraconservative political allies. Yan Rachinsky, chairman of veteran human rights and history organization Memorial, said the closure was like “spitting on the graves of the victims of state terror,” and a shameless bid to “destroy memory that is inconvenient for the current government.”

The first indication of problems for the Gulag History Museum came in late 2024 when its work was suspended under the pretext of “fire safety violations.” According to our sources (and reporting by The Moscow Times), this was ordered by the Kremlin, and the Federal Security Service (FSB). The trigger was apparently a “Prayer of Memory” at which participants read aloud the names of victims of repression. A similar event, “Returning the Names,” was previously organized by Memorial prior to the organization’s ban in 2021.

Neither Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, nor City Hall (which formally owns the museum) have commented in detail on last week’s announcement. They simply published a press release describing the new Museum of Memory.

The source also said Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister and participant in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, played a key role in the decision. Medinsky heads the Russian Military Historical Society (RMHS), an influential historical propaganda group that has helped establish several museums about the “genocide of the Soviet people” in World War II.

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The Gulag History Museum was set-up by City Hall in 2001, and the first head of the museum was dissident Anton Antonov-Ovseenko, who spent a total of 13 years in Soviet camps and prisons. Under Sobyanin (whose grandfather was repressed in 1937), the museum was moved from its original home in a converted apartment near the Kremlin into a newly-renovated four-storey building. Under its second director, Roman Romanov, it became a rare example of a internationally-renowned Russian state-owned museum, with some journalists comparing it to Berlin’s famous Jewish Museum. In 2021, it was awarded the Council of Europe Museum Prize for institutions making a significant contribution to the “understanding of European cultural heritage,” and “the promotion of respect for human rights and democracy.”

The museum that will open on the vacated site will be much more in line with the Kremlin’s view of the past. In recent years, Russia has heavily promoted the idea of a “genocide of the Soviet people,” an entirely new concept. Historian Konstantin Pakhaliuk, who was dismissed from the RMHS in 2023, has said that the idea helps counter-balance the belief that the Soviet Union helped to start World War II. “It allows them to say: ‘We are the main victors in this war, and we are also the main victims’,” Pakhaliuk said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin first mentioned this “genocide” in July 2020. In October 2022, a Russian court designated the siege of Leningrad as genocide, and, last year, Russia passed a law “On Perpetuating the Memory of the Victims of the Genocide of the Soviet People.” Now, the State Duma looks set to approve legislation that would make publicly denying the “genocide of the Soviet people” a crime punishable by up to five years in prison.

Since he came to power, Putin’s views of Stalin, who presided over the murder and imprisonment of millions of Russians, have evolved. In the early 2000s, Russian officials generally avoided open praise of the brutal leader, and even occasionally leveled criticism. Putin met repeatedly with Alexander Solzhenitsyn, who wrote The Gulag Archipelago, before the author’s death in 2008. And, as recently as 2017, Putin attended the unveiling of the “Wall of Sorrow,” a memorial to victims of political repression in downtown Moscow.

However, much has changed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Most of the estimated 131 monuments to Stalin erected in Russia under Putin have appeared amidst the fighting, and the first such Stalin statue in Moscow was put up in the metro last year. The Kremlin’s position on the Gulag History Museum was expressed on Wednesday by Putin adviser Valery Fadeev, who heads the Presidential Commission on Commemorating Victims of Political Repression (which last met in 2019). “Some [security officials] are beginning to think the topic of repression is being used by Russia’s enemies,” Fadeev told Kommersant newspaper.

Despite appearances, the Kremlin has not yet completely renounced the idea of honoring the memory of Soviet-era victims of political terror. But, as present-day repression intensifies, the topic is increasingly awkward. It’s far easier to focus on erasing “negative” memories, and promote a creeping rehabilitation of Stalin.

Analysis in brief

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• The Kremlin’s decision to allow people to meet with Putin without spending several days in quarantine (a Faridaily exclusive!);

• Is a banking crisis really already underway in Russia?

We also briefly examine the attempted assassination of the deputy head of Russian military intelligence, a 50 percent fall in Russian oil-and-gas revenues in January, and how Moscow is stepping up pressure on WhatsApp, Telegram, and YouTube.

⏳ This newsletter contains 1944 words—it will take about 10 minutes to read.

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Kremlin (finally) scraps quarantine for Putin meetings

In wartime Russia, face-to-face meetings with the president are an extremely important political commodity—and they’re now easier to obtain.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stopped demanding that all those he meets are quarantined in advance, four sources with knowledge of Kremlin protocol told Faridaily. Quarantine measures for the Russian leader were introduced in 2020 amid the coronavirus epidemic, and they have been strictly enforced by the Federal Guard Service (FSO).

Known to be careful with his health, Putin, 73, was the only head of state to impose such a strict coronavirus quarantine—and maintain it for so long. Government ministers, heads of state-owned companies, and billionaires have all had to put their lives on hold and stay in specially designated isolation facilities if they wanted to meet the Russian leader.

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• What we know about the Council of Europe’s attempt to establish an official organ to represent the exiled, anti-Putin Russian opposition.

• Why Russia’s domestic aviation manufacturing industry has failed to produce a single plane in 2025.

We also look briefly at the repeated destruction of a memorial to murdered journalist Anna Politkovskaya, some angry reactions to a jump in inflation, and the sale of one of Russia’s biggest airports to a longtime friend of Putin.

⏳ This newsletter contains 2123 words—it will take about 10 minutes to read.

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The exiled Russian opposition’s first ‘official’ institution

The establishment of a Council of Europe platform for Russia’s democratic, anti-Putin opposition has raised questions about transparency, and legitimacy.

European officials have often complained privately in recent years about the fragmentation, infighting, and competing agendas of Russia’s exiled opposition. In a bid to address this problem, the Council of Europe announced Monday it had chosen 15 delegates for its “Platform for Dialogue with Russian Democratic Forces” that it hopes will “strengthen Russian democratic forces to carry out democratic change in Russia and achieve a lasting and just peace in Ukraine.”

How were delegates chosen? Exiled Russian opposition groups could not agree on holding a vote for members to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) platform, and were unable to come up with an agreed list of representatives—effectively shifting the political responsibility for the composition of the platform onto PACE.

The resulting selection procedure was controversial, and opaque. The resolution establishing the platform, which was passed by PACE in October, contained no details about the process. Nor were any released subsequently. Apparently, PACE simply collected applications sent to a Proton email inbox. A total of 209 applications were received, one Russian opposition figure told Faridaily (he himself was not included in the delegation). He claimed: “There was no filtering on the Russian side.”

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While there is little to indicate Witkoff will be able to strike a deal this time, growing economic headwinds for Moscow seem to make peace more likely in the long term. The Finance Ministry released preliminary budget data Monday laying bare Russia’s financial problems as the war approaches its fifth year.

🛢 Oil-and-gas revenues far lower than expected

Revenue from producing and selling oil and gas was 22 percent below what was predicted last year in the planning of the budget, and 24 percent lower than the year before (2024).

There are two reasons for this. Firstly, oil prices were lower than expected. Not only did prices fall, but Western sanctions meant Russia was obliged to sell crude even cheaper (mostly to India and China). As a result, the price of Russian oil fell below $40 a barrel in the second half of the year, even though Russia’s spending plans in last year’s budget had assumed it would be worth $60 a barrel.

Secondly, a stronger ruble. Russia’s currency was among the strongest in the world last year. The ruble was supported by a significant trade surplus, low capital outflow due to sanctions, and high interest rates. We previously looked in detail at the reasons for the ruble’s strength here.

⚙️ Non-oil-and-gas revenue also down (albeit not as much)

Non-oil-and-gas revenue was slightly down, but this was less concerning for the Kremlin. As the government has repeatedly raised taxes in recent years, non-oil-and-gas revenue has been growing, and 2025 was no exception: up 12.6 percent year-on-year. At the same time, the total amount collected was still below the official target.

🔁 Revenue mix shifts to a record low for oil-and-gas

The split last year was 23 percent oil-and-gas revenue, and 77 percent non-oil-and-gas. There is Finance Ministry data on the split going back to 2006, and this is the lowest the oil-and-gas share has ever been. Over the last two years it has hovered about 30 percent, and before 2014 it went as high as 50 percent.

📈 High spending resulted in a large deficit

With revenue below expectations, and expenditure a bit higher, Russia recorded a substantial deficit of 5.6 trillion rubles (2.6 percent of GDP) last year. It was covered mainly through an increase in government debt. Even so, sovereign debt remains extremely low (at around 17% GDP).

What conclusions can we draw?

• Russia has become less dependent on oil-and-gas revenue, but the Kremlin is unlikely to be happy that this is occurring in wartime. Falling oil-and-gas revenue combined with economic stagnation means the option to dramatically increase state spending—like in the early years of the war—is off the table.

  According to calculations by the respected Tverdie Tsifry Telegram channel, if oil prices, and the value of the ruble, remain at current levels, the deficit this year will be 3.5 trillion rubles ($45 billion). That is a huge amount—almost half the Kremlin’s annual spending on pensions and social benefits.

• Through financial tweaks (like raising some taxes and increasing borrowing) and using reserves in the National Wealth Fund, Russia can maintain its current high level of military spending for several more years. However, this would mean there is not enough money for infrastructure development, and human capital.

  The Finance Ministry believes the era of ultra-high oil-and-gas revenue is now at an end. The government last month published their budget forecasts through 2042. According to these figures, the share of oil-and-gas revenue in the budget will gradually fall to 13 percent.

• Russia’s finances are not in great shape, and Putin cannot ignore economic reality as he engages in peace negotiations. It’s obvious that the war is draining resources not only from Ukraine, but also from Russia.

• Further tax increases are inevitable. Even if the fighting in Ukraine comes to an end, Russia will need money for recovery and development. The only question is how big the tax rises will be.

• What Putin’s refusal to comment on events in Venezuela and Iran says about his strategy in Ukraine;

• A survey showing that Russian business sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with weak demand and dissatisfaction over high taxes at record levels.

We also briefly consider the Russian Orthodox Church’s first anti-abortion prayer and why Russian officials prefer not to acknowledge that the war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the so-called Great Patriotic War (1941-1945).

⏳ This newsletter contains 1738 words—it will take about 9 minutes to read.

Kremlin ready to make geopolitical sacrifices to ‘win’ in Ukraine

Desperate to keep Trump on side to secure a favorable peace deal in Ukraine, Putin is even willing to refrain from criticism of U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has barely appeared in public since the New Year, and has notably refrained from commenting on two major global events: the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military on January 3, and Washington’s threats to launch military action in support of Iranian protestors.

Having ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in response to what he deemed a “U.S.-orchestrated coup” in 2014, Putin now appears remarkably relaxed about Western-led regime change. This is particularly significant because his coyness risks jeopardizing Russia’s relationships with countries in the Global South, where opposition to U.S. military interventions runs deep.

Putin is likely avoiding criticism of his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump because he still hopes Trump will help him conclude a peace deal in Ukraine that is favorable to Russia.

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• The first parliamentary elections since the start of the war

• A possible squeeze on non–oil-and-gas revenue

• The social and political impact of soldiers returning from Ukraine

• The specter of declining living standards

• The risks of implementing Russia’s “great internet firewall”

While the war in Ukraine continues, the Kremlin will carry on pretending life in Russia is “normal”—while simultaneously cracking down on dissent, tightening censorship, and squeezing every last drop out of the economy to achieve victory on the battlefield.

However, the war has become so all-consuming that a peace deal would also be a political challenge. In post-war Russia, there will be a reckoning with the enormous costs of the fighting (human and economic), as well as a search for new political messaging, and existential questions about how to generate economic growth.

The five key issues we predict will define Russia in 2026 could all be affected by an end to the fighting—but it will not diminish their importance.

⏳ This newsletter contains 1450 words—it will take about 8 minutes to read.

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📌 First parliamentary elections since the start of the war

Why does it matter? Over the last two decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin has done everything in his power to turn elections into a ritualized, purely technical procedure—from the widespread use of ballot-stuffing and fraud, to total control of the media. But the Kremlin needs to preserve a constitutional majority for the ruling United Russia party in order to be able to pass the laws it needs, and elections remain an important part of how the regime sees itself. In the run-up to the vote, the Kremlin will want to avoid angering the elite and the wider public. As a consequence, election periods tend to be a nervous time.

Wartime or peacetime? The most important consideration for the Kremlin is whether the elections—scheduled for September 2026—will be held while the fighting continues in Ukraine. In many ways, it would be more straightforward to hold wartime elections because the Kremlin already has the experience of the 2024 presidential elections.

Indeed, if a peace deal were reached in the coming months, it would make voting more unpredictable. The Kremlin’s political managers would have to take account of how exactly the war ended; how supporters of the war reacted to the arrival of peace; the impact of the return of hundreds of thousands of men from the front; and the economic situation. It’s possible the Kremlin’s concerns about their ability to “control” elections explains the online restrictions imposed this year, and repression targeting activists that pose no political threat.

📌 Squeeze on non–oil-and-gas revenue

Why does it matter? The idea that the Kremlin is solely dependent on money from oil and gas exports is a myth. As much as 78 percent of Russia’s budget actually consists of taxes, duties, and other revenue streams formally unrelated to oil and gas extraction (and this percentage has been rising). If non–oil-and-gas revenues were lower than projected next year because of anemic economic growth, it could influence policymaking—perhaps even pushing Putin toward ending the war in Ukraine.

Although Russian military spending remains at a record high, a lack of money could have serious consequences. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently complained his agency was operating amid “acute financial restrictions dictated by the federal budget.”

What are the risks? When drafting this year’s budget, the authorities projected 31.4 trillion rubles ($340 billion) in non–oil-and-gas revenues—almost 10 percent more than last year. This was a bold move given that the economy is expected to struggle. Even according to the official GDP forecast, growth will not exceed 1.3 percent, and estimates by most independent economists are under 1 percent. The government is hoping growth in non–oil-and-gas revenues will be delivered by additional VAT income (VAT was raised from 20 percent to 22 percent on January 1). However, it’s an open question whether this will generate enough money. Apart from anything else, the increased tax burden, and high interest rates, could push thousands of businesses into the shadow economy.

📌 Soldiers returning from Ukraine

Why does it matter? About 700,000 soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine, according to official data. Whether they return all at once after a peace deal, or gradually, the consequences will be significant. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, there have been at least 1,000 cases in which Russian soldiers have killed, or attempted to kill, Russian civilians far behind the frontlines.

What to expect? State-owned media do not devote any airtime to the crimes committed by veterans. Instead, Russian propaganda—and Russian officials—refer to them as “heroes,” and glorify their exploits. Putin calls them a “new elite.” In private conversations, however, officials have previously conceded to Faridaily that these are badly traumatised men, who are accustomed to violence, and prone to PTSD and alcohol abuse.

The first to suffer from the violence committed by ex-soldiers will almost certainly be their families, especially their wives. But there will also be conflicts with civilians—particularly those who did not fight.

Soldiers who enjoyed the enormous salaries and bonuses given to those who volunteered to fight may also be unwilling to settle for low-paid jobs when they return to civilian life. According to officials, 250,000 already-returned soldiers are unemployed. And a source in a government-affiliated analytical center said ex-soldiers might quickly end up in debt—making their existence even more precarious.

📌 Declining living standards

Why does it matter? Russia’s wartime consumer boom has come to an end. For the first two years of fighting, this helped the Kremlin maintain the illusion that the war was far away, and was having little effect on everyday life. But the illusion began to fade last year, and this process will continue to unfold in 2026.

What is happening to consumer demand? The boom of 2023–2024 was driven by rising household incomes, fueled by expanding social handouts (not only to the military and their families, but also, for example, to families with children), and, most importantly, by strong wage growth. However, wage growth slowed significantly in 2025. From January through October, Russian wages grew 4.7 percent year-on-year in real terms (compared to 9 percent in 2024).

Ongoing labor shortages mean modest wage growth will likely still be the norm in 2026. At the same time, high borrowing costs and weakening consumer confidence are already weighing heavily on consumer demand. Retail trade growth fell from 7.2 percent in 2024 to just 2.5 percent in 2025.

A gradual fall in living standards is extremely unlikely to have any dramatic political consequences. However, it could fuel unhappiness over the long-term. With an economy heading for stagnation, it will become harder and harder for the Kremlin to find the resources to manage this discontent.

📌 Implementing Russia’s ‘great internet firewall’

Why does it matter? The Kremlin carried out an unprecedented assault on internet freedoms last year and—if things continue—Russians may soon find themselves completely cut off from independent information, and communication with the outside world.

What happened in 2025? Russia effectively blocked WhatsApp, the country’s most popular messaging app; video sharing platform YouTube; and voice calls on Telegram, Russia’s second most popular messenger. At the same time, it pushed “national messenger” MAX as a replacement, including via laws mandating its use. In addition, many regions have had no mobile internet for six months—internet shutdowns in Russia last year broke all global records. In December, Putin claimed that Russia had “achieved full digital sovereignty.”

What will happen in 2026? There are no signs the online crackdown has come to an end—and some of the Kremlin’s plans for this year are already clear. Parliament is set to approve laws requiring Russians to register the International Mobile Equipment Identifiers (IMEIs) of their devices in a special database, allowing telecom operators to block “suspicious” devices. It will also be made illegal to receive calls from foreign numbers.

However, there is far from universal support for these restrictions. Even state-controlled pollster VTsIOM has said 39% of Russians do not support blocking foreign internet services. And this rises to 68% of those aged between 25 and 33. This has led to some small protests (for example, one in the Siberian city of Tomsk in December last year, shown above), and it’s possible that the discontent may play a role in the September parliamentary elections.

In 2025, Russia saw an extraordinary event—the suicide of a government minister. We spoke to our high-level sources to gauge their response.

Russia’s unprecedented internet crackdown goes far beyond censorship, threatening access to basic online services and driving a dramatic—and likely permanent—process of de-digitalization.

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• Why Putin dresses more and more often in military uniform, and why he has taken to being seen at more military-themed meetings;

• The reasons for the ruble’s strength this year. Can it last?

We also briefly look at new data on Russian military spending, a rare street protest against the Orthodox Church, and the first foreign company to be designated “extremist.”

This newsletter contains 2114 words—it will take about 10 minutes to read.

Putin’s increasingly frequent military PR-stunts

The “militarization” of Putin’s media activity is supposed to bolster his image as a wartime leader and convince the White House that Russia is winning on the battlefield.

There has been a significant uptick in the number of public meetings about the Ukraine war involving President Vladimir Putin over the last three months, according to a tally by Faridaily. The Russian leader has also been seen far more often in military uniform.

Putin held two such meetings about the war in October (1, 2), one in November (3), and two so far this month (4, 5)—a total of five. In comparison, he had just four such meetings in the entire first two years of the war (2022 and 2023). Similarly, in the same October-December period, Putin appeared in public wearing a military uniform three times. Until the beginning of this year, he had only ever been seen in civilian clothes.

Being shown as more directly involved in the military effort is a tactic supposed to bolster Putin’s image as a successful commander-in-chief, and broadcast confidence that Russia is winning the war. And this is designed to strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ongoing peace talks. Above all, Putin seems to want to influence the thinking of U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration, which has stepped up its efforts to find a peace agreement acceptable to all sides of the conflict. The Kremlin wants to try and convince Washington that Ukraine’s capitulation on the battlefield is inevitable—so, Moscow should be allowed to dictate its terms for ending the war.

Unlike his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, whose sartorial choices changed after the full-scale invasion and is regularly seen in military attire, Putin has generally preferred to remain in a suit. The first time Putin donned a military uniform was in March, 2025, at a meeting when his generals informed him Russian forces were about to retake parts of Kursk region seized by Ukraine. This was also shortly after Trump’s return to the White House, and before one of the first visits to Moscow by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff.

At least circumstantially, there is evidence that Putin’s military outfits coincide with key moments in peace negotiations with Washington. He again put on a military uniform in November when details of Trump’s new peace plan were revealed. And in December a day before the Moscow visit by Witkoff and with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

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• Top Russian officials told Faridaily that the Kremlin does not expect to regain control of $280 billion in frozen assets;

• How revenue shortfalls have replaced spiralling defense spending as the main headache for Russian financial planners.

We also look at why Putin has canceled his annual state-of-the-nation address, the FSB getting new powers to oversee academics, and how Russia is poised to block messaging service Whatsapp.

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Wrangling over frozen Russian assets

The Kremlin would be open to the idea of the funds being invested in rebuilding Ukraine after the end of the fighting.

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The last six months have seen a series of restrictions on internet use. While each restriction on its own may not seem like much, together they amount to a significant, new intrusion into the daily life of Russians. This is not only a question of censorship. It’s about access to basic online services, and a dramatic—likely permanent—process of de-digitalization.

⌛️ This newsletter contains 1976 words—it will take about 10 minutes to read.

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Creeping restrictions hand power to FSB

In recent weeks, it has become clear that the Kremlin is moving from selective shutdowns and targeted internet interference to the implementation of what has been dubbed “Putin’s firewall”—that is, a campaign to isolate the Russian internet from the world.

Symbolically, the government last week formally enshrined the obligation of mobile operators to shut down the internet at the request of the Federal Security Services (FSB) in a bill submitted to the State Duma. The all-powerful domestic security agency already has more than enough power to enforce its will, but the legislation will legalize existing practice—and mark the formalization of the FSB’s control of Russia’s online world.

Internet blackouts part of day-to-day reality

We can date the beginning of this year’s internet crackdown to May 8—the day before Russia marked Victory Day, a public holiday celebrating the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany. Just before the start of the festivities, people all over the country started reporting mobile and fixed-line internet outages. On Victory Day itself, the shutdowns hit Moscow, where the internet was out for most of the day. Muscovites are accustomed to online taxi and food delivery services, as well as contactless payments via smartphones. These were all unavailable without the internet.

Online shutdowns are a well-known tool of authoritarian regimes. However, until now, they were rare in Russia. Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were only a couple of such cases: one in the North Caucasus region of Ingushetia in 2018 when internet access was cut during protests against a border agreement; the other in parts of Moscow in 2019 during opposition demonstrations. After the start of the war, shutdowns gradually became more common—particularly in regions bordering Ukraine.

It appears that the Kremlin was happy with its May “experiment,” and internet shutdowns have since become part of everyday life. In May, there were 69 instances of outages across Russia, rising to 662 in June, and over 2,000 in both July and August, according to data collated by the NA SVYAZI internet research project. In October, there were 1,800 outages. Residents of a country that once prided itself on its digitalization now need to withdraw cash in advance, download maps onto their smartphones, and order taxis by ringing up taxi firms.

The official explanation is that outages are needed to protect against Ukrainian drone attacks. While there is likely some truth to this claim (drones can use mobile towers for navigation), it’s also evident that the Kremlin is exploiting security concerns to extend its control over the internet. Tellingly, internet outages have occurred in regions thousands of miles from Ukraine (and the routes taken by Ukrainian drones)—including Russia’s Far East.

In some regions, mobile internet has been switched off for months. For example, it has been unavailable in Udmurtia since the summer. A resident of the Udmurt capital, Izhevsk (a major site for Russian defense production), told Faridaily he was used to going into cafes and shops to use the Wi-Fi in order to read the news, or order a taxi. Similarly, there has been no mobile internet in the city of Volgograd for a month—and it’s unclear when (or if) it might be restored. Reports suggest local providers have been inundated with requests for fixed-line internet, use of cash is widespread, and schools no longer have a problem with kids being addicted to their smartphones. And in the city of Tula south of Moscow, the authorities are installing public Wi-Fi at bus stops.

As the number of shutdowns has ballooned, officials in at least 57 regions have introduced so-called “whitelists”—a list of websites that are unaffected. These include government portals, some banking apps, social networks, messengers, streaming services, and marketplaces. Some fear whitelists could soon become the day-to-day online reality for most Russians.

The unstoppable rise of ‘Russia’s WeChat’

Just a few weeks after the May shutdowns, Russia’s Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev told President Vladimir Putin that messenger MAX, which had been launched a few months earlier by internet company VK, would be transformed into a “national messenger” similar to China’s WeChat. MAX could, Shadayev promised, provide government and banking services, be a platform to sign sales and lease agreements, and serve as a digital ID.

A few weeks later, Russia passed a law integrating MAX with Gosuslugi, the widely-used government services portal, and the Goskey electronic signature service. Putin also issued a directive for the government to support MAX.

However, a Kremlin-led PR campaign to promote MAX has been dogged by public suspicion—particularly when it comes to MAX’s relationship with the FSB. This centers on Internet company VK, which created MAX and is more famous for its social media network Vkontakte (Russia’s “equivalent to Facebook”). VK is ultimately controlled by state-owned gas giant Gazprom. In 2018, case materials from the criminal prosecution of Vkontakte users showed VK had provided data to law enforcement without court orders.

As a result, many believe MAX is tracking its users, harvesting data from smartphones, and sharing chats and calls with the FSB. Since MAX is a closed-source app, some of these claims are impossible to confirm. Perhaps tellingly, a State Duma deputy claimed in September that MAX “does not spy on users.” VK said in October that MAX has 50 million registered users.

Squeezing WhatsApp and Telegram

As the development of MAX continues apace, so discussions about blocking WhatsApp (Russia’s most popular messaging app with 97.4 million monthly users), and Telegram (90.5 million monthly users) have intensified. The authorities have long been irritated by the failure of WhatsApp and Telegram to localize Russian user data, as well as their refusal to provide user data to the FSB. Given that online watchdog and censor Roskomnadzor last year blocked Viber—Russia’s third most popular messenger— discussions about banning WhatsApp and Telegram should be taken seriously.

In August, Roskomnadzor blocked voice calls in WhatsApp and Telegram. Although the official explanation was that this was necessary to stop scammers, data from Russia’s Central Bank shows scammers use mobile and landline calls three times more often. While some said the curbs are part of an effort to push Russians toward MAX by degrading the functionality of its competitors, others pointed out that Russian telecom operators have long advocated to limit internet calls as they make fixed-line phones less profitable.

At the end of October, Roskomnadzor began experimenting with total blocks on Telegram and WhatsApp in some regions (justifying the move by citing the need to fight scammers). It also emerged mobile operators were blocking the text messages and calls that WhatsApp and Telegram use to verify new users.

Fines for searching for ‘extremist content’

Perhaps the most widely discussed element of Russia’s online crackdown was a Sept. 1 law imposing fines of up to 5,000 rubles ($62) for “intentionally searching” for “extremist materials” online. This was an immensely significant step: Russia has never previously punished people for consuming blocked content, or using prohibited services—in effect, simply for reading.

As with many Russian laws, the text is vague, leaving ample room for interpretation. The country’s official list of “extremist material,” which is managed by the Justice Ministry, currently includes over 5,000 entries, including books, films, articles, and songs—meaning users could be fined for searching for content without knowing it has been designated extremist.

One of Russia’s most well-known extremist organizations is the Anti-Corruption Foundation founded by opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who died in a Russian prison in 2024. Under the new law, just searching for YouTube investigations by the Foundation is an offense.

So far, the only known prosecution has been of a student from the Ural Mountains city of Kamensk-Uralsky, who is accused of searching for information about Ukraine’s Azov regiment, and a Ukraine-backed paramilitary group reportedly made up of Russian citizens. How exactly the user’s search history ended up in the hands of the FSB is unknown.

• Intensifying the fight against VPNs

In recent months, the Kremlin has stepped up its efforts to block Virtual Private Networks (VPNs), which Russians are dependent on to get around online censorship. According to pollster Levada Center, 20 percent of Russians use VPNs—a figure that rises to 40 percent among young people. While VPNs remain legal, the authorities took the first step toward criminalizing them in July by making use of VPNs an “aggravating circumstance” in Russia’s Criminal Code. No-one has yet been prosecuted under this provision, but it’s likely it will be used to boost the punishments meted out in cases against those accused of “searching” for “extremist material” online.

• SIM-cards blocked after trips abroad

Earlier this month—with only a few days advance warning—Russia blocked people from using their SIM cards on returning from a trip abroad. Again, the reason given by officials was to combat Ukrainian drones that use mobile internet to navigate. As of Nov. 10, if a SIM has used international roaming services, when it crosses the border into Russia it will be unable to access mobile internet, and text messaging services, for 24 hours. This applies to both foreign, and Russian-issued, SIMs. On paper, you can lift the block by completing a short online check, but there have been complaints that this service is frequently inaccessible.

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Adaptation, not resistance

The Russian internet is steadily evolving into a closed ecosystem built around domestic services (especially messengers and social networks), where security—at least as defined by the state—takes precedence over freedom.

And a survey published earlier this month by the state-controlled VTsIOM pollster showed that 40 percent of Russians are opposed to internet controls (compared to 25 percent who support them). Among young people, opposition rises to 60 percent.

Nevertheless, there is no prospect of any serious resistance, or anger directed at the Kremlin. “People are obliged to accept all the restrictions,” said an executive at a Russian internet company. “Firstly, because they are presented as security measures, and, secondly, because there is no way to resist.” A different internet company executive added: “This is the new reality we’ll have to get used to—there are never rollbacks or relaxations in our country.”

It appears Russians have become accustomed to the creeping digital restrictions and, for the most part, see them as just another part of everyday life. Some believe they are genuinely needed for security reasons; others do not want to risk imprisonment in order to express their unhappiness. Either way, the focus for most is on adapting, rather than resisting.

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This time we are looking at:

• Why the Kremlin’s decision to call-up Russia’s reservists for mandatory military service is a covert form of mobilization;

• How the end of Russia’s economic boom is affecting consumers.

We also briefly examine the governor KPIs that the Kremlin will likely use in next year’s parliamentary elections, and a crackdown on Halloween celebrations.

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Kremlin fears Ukrainian drones—and the word ‘mobilization’

The Russian authorities will call-up the country’s reservists in order to better guard key infrastructure sites from Ukrainian attacks.

Russia is poised to mobilize about 30,000 reservists as it struggles to find the manpower to deal with Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on the use of reservists Tuesday after legislation was rushed through parliament. Putin will also shortly issue a special decree (as required by the law), and an official told Faridaily the government will publish a document clarifying the call-up procedure.

While such a step is—in effect—a form of mobilization, no formal documents use the word “mobilization.” Officials are also careful to avoid the term. The Kremlin is wary because Russia’s partial mobilisation in 2022—in which about 300,000 men were drafted as the army suffered battlefield reversals—led to a drop in Putin’s popularity.

Russia’s decision to tap its military reservists for the war effort is not only a recognition that Ukraine’s summer drone campaign has succeeded in inflicting serious damage. It is also yet another sign that the Kremlin is not in the market for compromise when it comes to negotiations with the West, and has not renounced its maximalist war aims.

The legislation on reservists signed by Putin earlier this week was not explicit about how reservists would be used. Instead, it stated they will be sent to special “training camps” in which participation will be mandatory. However, it’s clear that this actually means reservists will be deployed to guard infrastructure facilities across Russia.

• Russia’s military reserve, which was set up in 2015, is the equivalent of the United States Army Reserve, or the United Kingdom’s Territorial Army. Reservists are those who have experience in the army or security forces, and have signed a contract of up to five years with the Defense Ministry, the National Guard, or another security agency.

  In peacetime, reservists are only required to attend annual training camps. For the rest of the year, they live like ordinary civilians. Current monthly pay with the Defense Ministry is usually up to 9,700 rubles ($120). However, in regions bordering Ukraine, it can be higher.

Officials have not hidden that the need for reservists is a result of Ukraine’s drone strikes on oil refineries, which have sent gasoline prices soaring 13 percent this year. The legislation was proposed by the Defense Ministry, and passed by parliament in just two days.

“The situation is difficult,” Anatoly Kartapolov, head of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, said last week. “The country is under regular enemy drone attack.” According to Kartapolov, it’s not only oil refineries that need defending, but also other infrastructure sites. He said there were not enough National Guard, police, and military personnel to do the job.

The number—and frequency—of Ukrainian drone raids have increased significantly this summer. While many of the attacks have been on oil refineries, other infrastructure targets have also been hit. For example, the southern Russian port of Tuapse was attacked last week, reportedly causing damage to moored vessels, and an oil pipeline.

How many reservists will be called up? Could they be sent to Ukraine?

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This is Farida Rustamova, and I’m getting in touch to share an important update.

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