Hello and welcome to Vlast! In this week’s newsletter, we look at why the Russian elite believes Putin is increasingly confident that Kyiv will capitulate—perhaps as soon as this winter. We also look briefly at why a government reshuffle is bad news for Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and at tax breaks for companies that invest in drone defenses.
⏳ This newsletter contains 1,708 words and will take approximately 8 minutes to read.
Before we start, a quick message from Wall Street Journal reporter and former Russian political prisoner Evan Gershkovich:
Vlast is one of the most insightful resources out there if you want to understand Russian politics. Keep reading, and don’t forget to share with your friends and colleagues (you can purchase a discounted subscription here).
There is also plenty of politics in my new memoir, This Cursed Beautiful Land, which tells the story of my entrapment by the FSB and how I spent 16 months in Russian prisons. I conclude that, while Putin genuinely believed I was a spy, the senior leadership of the FSB knew all along that I was a journalist—or, at the least, didn’t care one way or the other. More than a prison memoir, the book is a tale of contemporary Russia’s autocratic descent.
— Evan Gershkovich
Russia is serious about escalation—not peace talks
Officials in regular contact with President Vladimir Putin have told Vlast that the Russian leader increasingly believes military escalation and intensified air attacks will force Kyiv to make concessions in the coming months. They do not think Putin intends to make any compromises in ongoing peace negotiations brokered by Washington.
“Our attacks are far more painful for Ukraine than their strikes are for us,” said a senior government official. “Everything could be over by winter; they won’t hold out. They will have to make concessions.”