🔇Putin’s revealing reticence on Iran and Venezuela

Hello and welcome to your essential guide to Russian politics and economics! This time we look at:

• What Putin’s refusal to comment on events in Venezuela and Iran says about his strategy in Ukraine;

• A survey showing that Russian business sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with weak demand and dissatisfaction over high taxes at record levels.

We also briefly consider the Russian Orthodox Church’s first anti-abortion prayer and why Russian officials prefer not to acknowledge that the war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the so-called Great Patriotic War (1941-1945).

⏳ This newsletter contains 1738 words—it will take about 9 minutes to read.

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Kremlin ready to make geopolitical sacrifices to ‘win’ in Ukraine

Desperate to keep Trump on side to secure a favorable peace deal in Ukraine, Putin is even willing to refrain from criticism of U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has barely appeared in public since the New Year, and has notably refrained from commenting on two major global events: the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military on January 3, and Washington’s threats to launch military action in support of Iranian protestors.

Having ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in response to what he deemed a “U.S.-orchestrated coup” in 2014, Putin now appears remarkably relaxed about Western-led regime change. This is particularly significant because his coyness risks jeopardizing Russia’s relationships with countries in the Global South, where opposition to U.S. military interventions runs deep.

Putin is likely avoiding criticism of his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump because he still hopes Trump will help him conclude a peace deal in Ukraine that is favorable to Russia.

“It’s unpleasant that allies are being mistreated, but there’s nothing he [Putin] can do. Commenting would be pointless — it would only draw attention to his weakness,” said a source well-connected to the Kremlin. “He has his own war.”