Why the Russian regime is not on the brink of collapse

And growing headwinds for Russian Railways

Welcome to Vlast! This time we look at:

• The significance of Putin’s growing unpopularity and why you should be wary of lurid claims in Western media;

• State-owned Russian Railways, one of the country’s most important companies, has slashed its investment program and is struggling with over $47 billion of debt.

We also examine scaled-back Victory Day celebrations, the unprecedented flight of a deputy minister to the United States, and recent data that shows Russia has not yet had a significant financial windfall from the Iran war.

⏳This newsletter contains 2,206 words and will take about 11 minutes to read. It was translated and edited by Howard Amos.

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Putin’s sliding popularity is significant—but not critical

While it’s true that the Russian regime is facing a level of stress not seen for several years, alarmist predictions being aired in Western media are wide of the mark.

In recent days, Western media have been filled with a series of lurid articles suggesting the Russian regime is bedevilled by an unprecedented level of infighting—and even that President Vladimir Putin’s days in power might be numbered.

Some of the reporting has been based on a report from an unidentified European security agency, with CNN on Thursday headlining an article: “Unsettled Kremlin tightens security around Putin amid assassinations and coup fears, intel report says.” The Washington Post published an article Wednesday that cited a source claiming there is a “divide in the upper reaches of Kremlin power,” and a commentator on a Sky News podcast suggested that “If Putin’s not careful, the country could snap.”

But does this sort of reporting reflect the real state of affairs in the Kremlin? While it’s difficult to judge the veracity of briefings by unidentified European security officials (or their motivations for speaking out now), it’s true that Putin’s approval ratings have been falling in recent weeks. This is undeniably significant.

The Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), whose main client is the Kremlin, said last week that 73 percent of respondents believe Putin is doing a “rather good” job, the lowest figure since 2022. Independent pollster Levada Center said on May 30 that Putin’s approval rating has fallen steadily for six months, reaching 79 percent in April, the first time it has been below 80 percent since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And Kremlin-run polling center VTsIOM said last month that Putin’s support had fallen for 7 weeks in a row to just 65.6 percent.

To an outside observer, these numbers might look extraordinarily high (in contrast, 78 percent of Germans disapprove of the German chancellor, and 62 percent of those in the United States disapprove of President Donald Trump). But authoritarian Russia functions very differently from Western democracies.

Putin’s popularity is not only the pulse of the Russian system, it’s an important indicator of political stability. Officials at all levels strive to boost the president’s rating, which is considered tantamount to a matter of national security. Crucially, no other politician is allowed to get more popular than Putin. For example, when Khabarovsk region governor Sergei Furgal’s approval ratings surpassed Putin’s, he was jailed.

And it’s noticeable that the Kremlin has recently been taking steps to burnish Putin’s image—a sure sign of concern. After several months of rarely appearing in public, Putin suddenly became very active last week, including meetings with what Kremlin political managers call “different social groups” (including athletes, and indigenous peoples).

Why are Putin’s ratings declining? Firstly, people are unhappy with the economic situation. To finance military spending, the authorities have had to raise taxes and crack down on tax evasion. At the same time, interest rates remain high because the Central Bank is pursuing a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. As a result, economic growth and household income growth slowed significantly last year. Secondly, war fatigue is growing. There were hopes for an end to the fighting and a return to normal life after Trump returned to the White House in 2025—but these have been dashed. Finally, online restrictions and internet shutdowns have caused widespread anger.

Is the regime under threat? This is the key question. The European security agency report apparently suggested that Putin was more and more fearful of a coup. But it seems unlikely that coup plotters in Russia would be informing European spies of their intentions (or that European spies would want to warn Putin of a plot).